The sharpest
projections in DFS.
Priced by Vegas, not by opinion.
Every WarPaint projection starts where the smartest money already is: player prop markets from a sharp-book consensus, vig stripped, converted to DraftKings points — refreshed all week and re-checked before every lock, Thursday through Monday.
Live ownership projections built the same way. We read where the public is juicing the props and turn it into a real %-drafted forecast that sums like DraftKings' own — so you know the chalk before the field does. Then, and only then, we build around what the other optimizers are telling their users to play.
Sharp inputs first.
Then the field edge.
An optimizer is only as good as the numbers it eats. WarPaint's projections and ownership are priced off the same prop markets the sharpest bettors move — then the engine builds for the exact contest you enter and, if you want it, around what the commercial optimizers are handing their users.
Every DraftKings slate is synced from the lobby — Thursday, Early Only, Afternoon Only, Sun-Mon, every Showdown. Vegas lines, prop-market projections, live ownership, injuries, depth charts and weather are already on every player.
Projections come from a vig-stripped sharp consensus of player props, converted to DK scoring. Ownership comes from the same markets — where the public is juicing a prop, our %-drafted forecast rises with it. Both are graded against real DK results weekly.
Milly Maker, 150-max GPP, 3-max, single entry, Showdown or cash: the rules scale continuously to your field size and entry count. The engine over-builds candidates, simulates them against a correlated field, and keeps the ones that pay on DK's actual payout curve.
Optionally load the projection exports from the sites the crowd subscribes to and the Shadow Field steps around their builds. Export the DK-ready CSV; before any lock a red alert flags scratches and one click fixes every affected lineup.
Razor-sharp inputs.
Contest-shaped builds.
Twelve systems, one order of operations: get the projections and ownership right, build for the exact contest, then put your entries where the crowd's optimizers structurally won't.
Every projection is priced from player prop markets — passing, rushing, receiving yards, receptions, touchdowns — taken as a sharp-book consensus with the vig stripped and converted to DraftKings scoring. Rookies and new signings get a salary + depth-chart prior until their markets open. Your own edits always win.
A discrete-choice model of what the field sees: value, projection, implied totals, prop volume and where the public is juicing a line. Position totals sum the way DraftKings' real %-drafted does — 600% in Showdown, kickers included — and temperatures re-fit from real standings every week.
The engine builds up to 4× the lineups you asked for, runs every candidate through correlated game scripts against a sampled field, prices each one on the contest's actual DraftKings payout curve, and keeps the portfolio that pays — with a field-size-aware exposure taper so a 175k-entry Milly doesn't ride eight players at the cap.
Field size and max entries drive a continuous ruleset — stack mix, naked-QB share, ownership window, salary bands, min-unique, exposure caps, max offense against your own DST — interpolated between Milly Maker, large GPP, small GPP, 3-max, single entry and every cash sub-type. The Active Ruleset panel shows exactly what fired.
A real Captain-mode solver: CPT + 5 FLEX with script mixes, leverage captains, per-player CPT min and max shares, kicker and DST ownership, and Millionaire-curve pricing for the big Showdown contests. The Captain Share chart shows who wore the crown across your entries.
Every subscriber's builds start from their own randomized seed, applied as a small correlated jitter to projections. Same slate, same settings, different portfolio — no two WarPaint users submit the same lineups.
A 14.2 and a 13.9 are the same player. After the solve, projection-equivalent peers rotate in to break shared cores without giving back expected value — never past your exposure caps, never into a player facing your own DST.
Load the projection and ownership exports from the sites the crowd subscribes to. WarPaint rebuilds what their optimizers hand their users, rejects any lineup sharing 7 of 9 players with them, and caps your duplicate probability — an optional layer on top of numbers you already trust.
The injury feed is polled while you're in the app. Anyone ruled out lands in a red alert listing every affected lineup, with one-tap Fix All that re-solves around your locked players — Smart or Manual — plus an email so you catch it away from the screen. Disagree with the feed? Restore any player and set your own number.
A pre-lock snapshot freezes every projection and ownership number. After the games, nflverse actuals and DK standings grade projection error by position, ownership error and chalk misses, which competitor site was sharpest, and how your portfolio actually finished.
A clean rules bar — lineups, salary window, exposure, min unique, QB stack, per-team max — with Fingerprint, Rotation and Shadow Field toggles and an Advanced drawer for group rules, presets and floors. Team Stack Heatmap and Cross-Contest Simulator read out what you built.
A Claude Sonnet 5 strategist reads the slate — Vegas, implied totals, our projections versus the market, where ownership will pile up — and writes a plain-English attack plan for the week.
The engine grades itself
every week.
Most tools never tell you how wrong they were. WarPaint freezes its numbers before lock, then scores them against the real DraftKings standings: projection error by position, ownership error and chalk misses, which competitor site was sharpest, and how your best lineup actually finished.
Those errors feed back into the model — ownership temperatures, per-position volatility and the trust given to each competitor site all move with the evidence. The scoreboard lives on your Portfolio page.
Every projection, ownership and volatility number frozen automatically before kickoff — grading never peeks at the post-game pool.
Mean error and bias by position, ours versus the market consensus, worst misses and best calls.
Predicted versus actual %-drafted by position, with the chalk the field over- or under-rostered.
Each competitor site's error is tracked; the field model leans on whichever site has been sharpest.
One site. One ruleset.
Zero diluted math.
Multi-site tools average stack rules, blend scoring and smooth payout curves so one engine can serve six sites. WarPaint is written against DraftKings alone — the roster, the bonuses, the Milly Maker prize cliff — and carries separate rulebooks for cash, small-field, large-field and Showdown without compromising any of them.
| Dimension | Multi-site optimizers | WarPaint |
|---|---|---|
| Roster + scoring | One projection set stretched across several sites with different flex rules, PPR variants and salary caps. | DraftKings only: the 9-man roster, full-PPR with 100-yard and 300-yard bonuses, and the $50k cap are hard constraints in every solve. |
| Contest rules | The same max-entry output trimmed to fewer lineups. A 3-max, a 35k flea flicker and a 200k Milly Maker get the same construction. | Rules derive from the contest you enter: field size and entry limit set stack shapes, ownership windows, salary bands, exposure caps and the duplicate cap. |
| Ownership | Ownership averaged from wherever it's posted first — noisy, and position totals don't add up. | A share model that sums the way DraftKings' actual %-drafted does, re-fit from real standings weekly, with the competitor consensus as the pessimistic ceiling. |
| Duplicates | A vague 'uniqueness' slider. | An explicit cap on expected copies for your field size, plus a shadow field built from the sites the crowd uses so your lineups stay clear of theirs. |
| Ranking | Lineups sorted by projected points. | Lineups ranked by correlated-simulation Field-Win %: how often they beat the field's bar, divided by the copies they'd split with. |
| Late swap | Manual edits with no view of what's locked. | Lock-aware re-solve of open slots, scratches forced out, unique versus the rest of your portfolio, for Smart, Manual or DK-CSV portfolios. |
| Accountability | Nothing. Last week's misses disappear. | Weekly grading against DraftKings standings, published on your Portfolio page. |
Duplicate cap, competitor shadow field, leverage anchors and contest-shaped stacks tuned for six-figure fields where copies kill your payout.
Tighter correlation, higher floors, relaxed ownership windows and concentrated exposure when you only get a few bullets.
Game-script routing from the spread and total, captain exposure budgets, K/DST captain limits and bring-back logic for one-game slates.
Floor objective on median outcomes — no leverage forcing, no ceiling chasing, the highest-floor legal lineup.
Stop playing against the players.
Start playing against their optimizers.
The tools below are good at what they do — which is exactly the problem. Tens of thousands of entries are built from the same three or four projection sets every week. WarPaint doesn't try to out-project them; it ingests their numbers and builds where they aren't. One tier, every feature included.
| What it optimizes | WarPaint DFS | Traditional Pro-Tier Sites | Token-Gated Simulators | Mass-Market Content Tiers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Objective | Beat the field's lineups | Maximize projected points | Maximize simulated points | Maximize projected points |
| Field model | Their consensus, ingested | None | Ownership-weighted random | None |
| Duplicates | Explicit copies cap | Uniqueness slider | Estimated | None |
| Accountability | Graded vs DK weekly | None | None | None |
| Price | $99/week · all-in | $150–$299/mo · gated | $200–$350/mo · credits | $29–$149/mo · bundle |
| Feature | WarPaint DFS | Traditional Pro-Tier Sites projection-first subscriptions | Token-Gated Simulators pay-per-simulation tools | Mass-Market Content Tiers multi-sport bundles |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projections priced from a vig-stripped sharp-book consensus of player props, converted to DK scoring | ✓ | PARTIAL | PARTIAL | — |
| Live ownership forecast driven by prop juice — sums like real %-drafted (600% in Showdown), re-fit weekly | ✓ | — | — | — |
| Over-build 4× → correlated sim → selection on the contest's actual DK payout curve | ✓ | — | PARTIAL | — |
| Field-size-aware exposure taper (no eight-player spine at the cap in a 175k field) | ✓ | — | — | — |
| Showdown: CPT min/max per player, leverage captains, K + DST ownership, Millionaire-curve pricing | ✓ | PARTIAL | PARTIAL | — |
| Shadow Field: rebuild the commercial optimizers' lineups from their exports and step around them (optional) | ✓ | — | — | — |
| Explicit expected-copies cap for your field size | ✓ | — | PARTIAL | — |
| Correlated Monte Carlo (game → team → player) with Field-Win % ranking | ✓ | PARTIAL | ✓ | — |
| Contest rules derived from field size + entry limit (Milly / 20-max / 3-max / SE / Showdown / cash) | ✓ | PARTIAL | PARTIAL | — |
| Vegas game-script stack routing per lineup | ✓ | — | — | — |
| Per-user variance seed — no two subscribers ship the same portfolio | ✓ | — | — | — |
| Post-solve peer swap for uniqueness without EV loss | ✓ | — | — | — |
| Late Swap Alerts: polled injury feed, red banner per lineup, one-tap Fix All + email, per-player restore override | ✓ | — | PARTIAL | — |
| Lock-aware Late Swap re-solve (open slots re-optimized, locked players kept) | ✓ | PARTIAL | ✓ | — |
| Weekly self-grading against DraftKings standings (projection + ownership error) | ✓ | — | — | — |
| Competitor site trust weights learned from graded results | ✓ | — | — | — |
| Pre-lock preflight checklist (feeds, injuries, ownership sanity, coverage) | ✓ | — | — | — |
| Manual optimizer: clean rules bar + Fingerprint / Rotation / Shadow Field toggles, group rules, Team Stack Heatmap | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Every DK slate synced from the lobby — Thu, Early Only, Afternoon Only, Sun-Mon, every Showdown | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | PARTIAL |
| Row-level projection & ownership overrides | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Bankroll-aware entry sizing on the Build screen | ✓ | — | — | — |
| AI slate brief (Claude Sonnet 5) | ✓ | — | — | — |
| Live Vegas · prop-market projections · injuries · depth charts · weather included | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | PARTIAL |
| Price | $99/week · everything | $97–$299/mo by tier | $110–$349/mo + sim credits | $29–$149/mo bundle |
| Commitment | Weekly · cancel any week | Monthly / annual | Monthly + credit packs | Monthly / annual |
| Pricing model | One plan, every feature | Feature-gated tiers | Token-gated simulations | Multi-sport content bundle |
| DraftKings-native rules, scoring and payout curves | Purpose-built | Multi-site generic | Multi-site generic | Multi-site generic |
Category descriptions reflect publicly advertised plans as of the 2026 preseason. Prices vary by promotion.
$99 a week. Every feature.
Cancel any week.
DFS is played week to week, so that's how we bill. No tiers, no add-ons, no season-long commitment — pay for the Sundays you play and keep every feature from the first build.
- ✓ Smart Optimizer with contest-shaped rules
- ✓ Field model from the sites the crowd uses
- ✓ Correlated Monte Carlo + Field-Win % ranking
- ✓ Manual Optimizer with group rules and peer swap
- ✓ Pre-lock scratch fix + lock-aware Late Swap
- ✓ Weekly self-grading against DK standings
- ✓ AI slate brief
- ✓ Unlimited slates · DK-ready CSV